Dost, Bernard and Ruigrok, Elmer and Spetzler, Jesper (2017) Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 96 (05). s235-s245. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2017.20
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
The increase in number and strength of shallow induced seismicity connected to the Groningen gas field since 2003 and the occurrence of a ML 3.6 event in 2012 started the development of a full probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Groningen, required by the regulator. Densification of the monitoring network resulted in a decrease of the location threshold and magnitude of completeness down to ∼ ML = 0.5. Combined with a detailed local velocity model, epicentre accuracy could be reduced from 0.5–1 km to 0.1–0.3 km and a vertical resolution ∼0.3 km. Time-dependent seismic activity is observed and taken into account into PSHA calculations. Development of the Ground Motion Model for Groningen resulted in a significant reduction of the hazard. Comparison of different implementations of the PSHA, using different source models, based on either a compaction model and production scenarios or on extrapolation of past seismicity, and methods of calculation, shows similar results.