Time-dependent seismic hazard in Bobrek coal mine, Poland, assuming different magnitude distribution estimations

Leptokaropoulos, Konstantinos Michail and Staszek, Monika and Cielesta, Szymon and Urban, Pawel and Olszewska, Dorota and Lizurek, Grzegorz (2017) Time-dependent seismic hazard in Bobrek coal mine, Poland, assuming different magnitude distribution estimations. Acta Geophysica. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-016-0002-9

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11600-016-0002-9

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate seismic hazard parameters in connection with the evolution of mining operations and seismic activity. The time-dependent hazard parameters to be estimated are activity rate, Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean return period and exceedance probability of a prescribed magnitude for selected time windows related with the advance of the mining front. Four magnitude distribution estimation methods are applied and the results obtained from each one are compared with each other. Those approaches are maximum likelihood using the unbounded and upper bounded Gutenberg–Richter law and the non-parametric unbounded and non-parametric upper-bounded kernel estimation of magnitude distribution. The method is applied for seismicity occurred in the longwall mining of panel 3 in coal seam 503 in Bobrek colliery in Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland, during 2009–2010. Applications are performed in the recently established Web-Platform for Anthropogenic Seismicity Research, available at https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/.

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Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Induced seismicity, Magnitude distribution, Bobrek mine, Time-dependent hazard assessment
Subjects: Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis – time-dependent
Region > Poland > Upper Silesia
Inducing technology > Underground mining
Project: IS-EPOS project > BOBREK MINE: Seismicity linked to longwall mining
EPOS-IP > BOBREK MINE: Seismicity linked to longwall mining